The bottom line is that Boston fears scared Republicans won’t vote and Chicago fears confident Democrats won’t vote. And so, in this final stretch, Boston wants Republicans confident and Chicago wants Democrats scared. Keep that in mind as you read the spin.
In an patent race, the firm that is just about to pass the point where it wins the race and gets a patent has an incentive to slack off a bit and coast to victory. The competitor who is almost toast has an incentive to slack off as he has little chance of winning. But if the race is close, all firms work hard.
Elections are similar except the campaigns have the information about whether the campaign is close or not and the voters exert the costly effort of voting. Campaigns have an incentive to lie to maximize turnout so the team that’s ahead pretends not to be far ahead and the team that’s behind pretends the race is very close. As Klein says, no-one can believe their spin and no information can be credibly transmitted.
If they really want to influence the election, the campaigns have to take a costly action to attain credibility. For example, they can release internal polling. This gives their statements credibility at the cost of giving their opponent their internal polling data.
Cheap Talk 
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October 26, 2012 at 11:25 am
alex
hmmmm…I’m not convinced this can work in a game. How is it possible that higher turnout is good for both parties? Surely if a higher turnout increases O’s chances, it decreases R’s chances, no?
October 26, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Anonymous
Meant turnout from your OWN supporters not from both parties.
October 26, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Brittany
this does not seem right. It implicitly assumes that only liberal voters read what O says, and only conservative voters read what R says. Otherwise, both campaigns are playing into the strategy of the other, which doesn’t seem like an equilibrium.
If R wants his voters confident, then he gets help when O tries to scare his supporters. R-supporters see the fear from O and thus grow more confident!
Likewise if O truly wants his supporters scared–R’s projected confidence only makes O-supporters all the more scared.
October 26, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Sandeep Baliga
I was thinking of communicating with your supporters nit the other side’s. And I was arguing that in equilibrium there cannot be informative communication.
If you communicate with both sides, as you say, there is no point even trying to manipulate beliefs as campaigns are trying to do.
August 3, 2013 at 10:48 pm
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