My sister-in-law asked me how many new PhDs in economics find jobs in academia (as opposed to taking private sector jobs.)  I said “More than half.” Her reply surprised me, for a moment. She said “Really, that few?”

I was surprised because my answer gave her only a lower bound.  “More than half” could easily mean “100%.” But after a moment I realized that my sister-in-law is very sophisticated and her response made perfect sense.