My sister-in-law asked me how many new PhDs in economics find jobs in academia (as opposed to taking private sector jobs.) I said “More than half.” Her reply surprised me, for a moment. She said “Really, that few?”
I was surprised because my answer gave her only a lower bound. “More than half” could easily mean “100%.” But after a moment I realized that my sister-in-law is very sophisticated and her response made perfect sense.
Cheap Talk 
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October 11, 2011 at 3:11 pm
andrea
not even in the top 10 there’s a 50% rate. My guess is 30% in the top 10 and 15% at best in the rest. Of those, maybe 1/2 to 2/3 get tenure and the rest drop out.
October 12, 2011 at 10:59 am
Nick
“President George W. Bush stated that he had never had an extramarital affair and had not used cocaine in the past 25 years, but he refused to say whether he used cocaine more than 25 years ago. Especially since President Bush volunteered the precise number 25 and his marital fidelity, fully rational voters probably should infer that Governor Bush used cocaine 26 years ago(…)”
Eyster and Rabin, 2005
Same story here, right?
October 18, 2011 at 6:57 pm
jpo@fdlm.com
I think it is more reasonable to believe that Governor Bush used cocaine between 26-30 years ago.
October 12, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Anonymous
I still don’t get it. What game is being played that one should consider the equilibrium of?
October 12, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Anonymous
One interpretation: Assuming that, on the margin, Jeff prefers that people in general (or just his sister-in-law in particular) believe that more PhDs in economics go into academia than otherwise, and assuming that his sister-in-law knows this about Jeff, then his saying “More than half” reduces to 50 + epsilon%