Here’s what I presented on Friday in Cambridge:
And here’s what I presented on Saturday in Chicago:
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December 16, 2012 at 9:09 am
Anticipation - Unofficial Network
[…] first ten minutes or so of this video discusses win probability graphs in tennis. They are similar to what FanGraphs presents for baseball games. The twist in the video is that the […]
December 16, 2012 at 9:34 am
Mom
Nice piano playing Jeff!
June 10, 2013 at 2:18 pm
Yorran
Hi Ai Ling,I came over from A List Bloggers to visit your blog. It’s a fascinating site. I could use a good math tutor for sure. I wish soneome like you had been around when I needed it. I became a writer to avoid math!I look forward to getting to know you through the forums.Sincerely,Angela Artemis Reply:April 23rd, 2010 at 11:27 amHi Angela, THANK YOU for coming by. As my niche is very much different from most folks in the club, I felt different too! Haha but I want to put what I have learnt into practice as well as learn from you and the rest of the club members.Cya at the club.
June 13, 2013 at 10:25 am
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October 17, 2013 at 10:15 pm
Eduardo
I have not really cseohn what kind of specialists I would like to work under, but I do believe that it would be fun to work in a Psychiatrist’s office. I originally was going for my B.A. in Psychology, but switched. There are so many to choose from that sound absolutely interesting. Such as working under an Internist or going simple and working under a Family practitioner. Even Gerontologist sounds like fun. I love the “aging population” and they have stories and much to teach.For the moment I am going to take this degree one step at a time and try to find the place that fits me best.
December 16, 2012 at 10:11 am
Anonymous
Is there a reason to put suspense before surprise (in the title i.e.)?
December 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
Dan
Hi Jeff,
Fangraphs has been making graphs for baseball that are very much like the graphs you start your presentation with. Here is the graph for the last game of the season:
http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2012-10-28&team=Tigers&dh=0&season=2012
They break down both the win probability (in the top graph) and what you call the suspense (but they call the leverage) in the bottom graph. I believe their graphs are also based on forward simulation from each game state, and the probabilities used in simulation are historical averages.
Your tennis graphs make the point equally well, but it might be useful to have a set of graphs that sports experts made, rather than your more ad hoc (but very reasonable) approach. Some sports writers have also argued that win probability is doing a good job measuring the excitement of the game, consistent with your argument.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-makes-an-exciting-game-revisited/
December 16, 2012 at 11:33 am
Dan
Wonderful playing Jeff! It’s very impressive.