In a meeting a guy’s phone goes off because he just received a text and he forgot to silence it. What kind of guy is he?
- He’s the type who is a slave to his smartphone, constantly texting and receiving texts. Statistically this must be true because conditional on someone receiving a text it is most likely the guy whose arrival rate of texts is the highest.
- He’s the type who rarely uses his phone for texting and this is the first text he has received in weeks. Statistically this must be true because conditional on someone forgetting to silence his phone it is most likely the guy whose arrival rate of texts is the lowest.
Cheap Talk 
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September 21, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Roger
He’s not the kind of guy that sets up scripts to automatically silence his phone whenever there’s a meeting on his calendar.
September 22, 2012 at 12:27 pm
jeff
He’s the kind of guy who does have such a script and so has completely forgotten about manualky silencing his phone and because this was an unplanned meeting it didn’t make it on his calendar.
September 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
David
He or she is the kind of guy who arrived late to the meeting for reasons beyond his/her control, and is so flustered by that fact [s]he forgot to silence the phone.
September 22, 2012 at 4:39 am
Saturos
Shouldn’t we be using Bayes’ Theorem here?
September 22, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Enrique
We could use Bayesian methods here, but why bother?
September 24, 2012 at 8:39 am
Paola Martinez
In one or another way he is being very rude with all the people in the meeting. He “must” turn off his cellphone.
September 30, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Anonymous
Hazard rates?