It’s the canonical example of reference-dependent happiness. Someone from the Midwest imagines how much happier he would be in California but when he finally has the chance to move there he finds that he is just as miserable as he was before.
But can it be explained by a simple selection effect? Suppose that everyone who lives in the Midwest gets a noisy but unbiased signal of how happy they would be in California. Some overestimate how happy they would be and some underestimate it. Then they get random opportunities to move. Who is going to take that opportunity? Those who overestimate how happy they will be. And so when they arrive they are disappointed.
It also explains why people who are forced to leave California, say for job-related reasons, are pleasantly surprised at how happy they can be in the Midwest. Since they hadn’t moved voluntarily already, its likely that they underestimated how happy they would be.
These must be special cases of this paper by Eric van den Steen, and its similar to the logic behind Lazear’s theory behind the Peter Principle. (For the latter link I thank Adriana Lleras-Muney.)
Cheap Talk 
22 comments
Comments feed for this article
February 20, 2012 at 7:36 am
twicker
That’s an interesting question – and you may now have some way for getting data to pit the theories against each other. Why? Because we now live in the era of Facebook.
Reading your note, I immediately thought of friends of mine in CA who often compare the weather there to the weather here in NC. Seems to me that, because the folks in CA get Facebook updates about the weather in NC from their friends who are still here (and updates from friends who have now, say, moved to Boston), their reference point is more likely to remain non-CA weather; thus, they should be more likely to experience a boost in happiness. If, however, their reference point is the overestimated happiness you discuss, then they might not.
Sure, there are lots of other variables and processes that might intervene (e.g., move to CA, discover you don’t have a job; move to CA, discover that, even with the recession, housing is still crazy expensive; move to CA, become homesick/not have local friends; etc.), but it might be more testable now.
February 20, 2012 at 11:05 pm
tela
As a native Californian, I’ve certainly witnessed my share of transplants from other parts of the country. It’s probably been going on here since the Gold Rush. The three examples I can think of off the top of my head are people who: 1) Constantly complain about how much worse California is compared with the state they came here fro, 2) Move here because they aspire to be a regional type or industry that are world famous or 3) Move here and become even more local than us locals. Really, the people who come and then never stop complaining about how where they came from is better in comparison are the worst – move back so we don’t have to listen to you anymore!
Bet the bigger example right now is in Portland, the land of (probably vegan and gluten free) Milk and Honey!
July 11, 2013 at 9:50 pm
Jeramy
I agree with tela. I am someone who grew up in so cal and then moved as a teen to a different state(WA). When I moved back I was a husband, father, and business owner.
Unfortunately, I am who tela says “are the worst” kinds of people that move here. I will tell you why. CA is literally the worst place I have ever been by far. Let me explain. Everybody is poor or close to it. After 4 months of living here 80% of people I have met work 2 jobs just to get by. The funny thing is these people think it is normal. They work 60 plus hours a week to live paycheck to paycheck. Everything seems to be over priced. Using common sense you would think a state with 34,000,000 people would have affordable prices because they have so many more consumers but in fact it is the complete opposite. Because people are so mindless and stuck in these overflowing networks of stuff to do they spend money without thought. With exception to the wealthy. There talent of penny pinching and nickel and diming is second to none. It is like they have no pride or self morals. It feels like this state has been milked to the bone. Let’s not forget the weather. People always say how nice the weathers is in CA and that is true if you live near the coast. Which is priced so high you better be a millionaire or ready for some ghetto living to get a spot by the water. Every where else is hot. And I mean hot. The people who have lived here there whole lives run and hide from the heat even more so then my self. I use to talk about how I miss the weather and sunshine in CA when living in Seattle which I am sure every knows how much rain they get. But after moving back to CA the first thing that hit me was…damn it’s hot. Everyday, all the time. Nights are bad and the A/C is never shut off. If you want to go out mid day and enjoy some peace and quite just do it when it’s 95 degrees or higher because most people stay indoors on those days. County after county is going bankrupt. Public school is a nightmare. Worst I have ever seen. Nobody uses a blinker when they drive. I thought for a while there people choose not to use there turn signal. I was wrong. After meeting people here and driving with them I notice they do not pay much attention when driving there vehicles. They are more concerned with where they are coming from or where they are going to even think about using a turn signal while speeding. Its the same reason they drive so close on streets and freeways. I was thinking why are there drivers always on my ass I am already going over the limit. They do not care about the limit. They get behind the care in front of them and follow. Like a deer in head lights.
No thought about being to close. The biggest shock of my life is finally being able to move back where I was born and raised and just to find out what a shit hole CA really is. Bottom line is there is to much greed and to much of people doing nothing to stop it going on. They put an actor in office as governor and look how that turned out. Sleeping with his house made or as the wealthy like to call them…The Help. And knocking her up. Wow real smart guy.
People in CA need to wake up and fight for one of the most beautiful places on the planet. Life is not all about money. So yeah move here. If you want to be poor you whole life and work until you die come on down.
February 20, 2012 at 11:12 pm
A Post of Bitterness « Yapping Yak
[…] Why Midwesterners would get disappointed and remain miserable when moved to CA […]
February 21, 2012 at 12:03 am
Anonymous
I liked Columbus enough. But nothing in America compares wit San Luis Obispo. I do miss the land of my childhood–the Hudson Highlands–but I do not long for the bluffs of the Olentangy.
February 22, 2012 at 12:09 am
David Hugh-Jones
There’s an empirical literature on the characteristics of entrepreneurs which also relates to the van den Steen paper. The motivating question is, why does anyone start a business when 80% of them fail in five years? Low risk-aversion and optimism both play a part iirc.
March 4, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Capitalkid_1
I was born and raised in the Golden State, however I realized in 2006 that it may be impossible to continue in good fortune as the tides were turning in the world of economics.
I am in my mid 30’s and in my early 30″s I began to see the shift, and in order to see it it has to move pretty fast.
Car insurance, vehicle registration, rental fees, the cost of moving into or out of a unit, groceries, diesel(or gas) was climbing, Electric Bills,gas Bills, but wages were decreasing.
I went from 15 hours of OT a week in a full time plus job in 2000 to a 4 hour a day 3 days a week job by 2009.
The wages aren’t there, and even if you have a 10 something an hour job, the residential rental rates will EAT your pay and you will likely still owe.
I have a friend who lives in San Jose, she has a 2 bedroom 1 Ba apartment in public housing, and her rent(at the low end) is 1400.00 a month….In public housing!
My grandparents were transplants in the 1930’s, and at that time there may have been a good claim behind it being called the Land Of Milk and Honey.
We moved to a lessor populated state that has no sales tax. Within the first month, wages or no, we saved hundreds in taxes we would have paid in California.
We paid 86.00 to register our vehicle(we got our notice for our registration 1 month before we moved 590.00$ Plus smog-because now they smog Diesels)
We now belong to a rural Electric Co-op and pay 6 cents a KWH flat- no tax. We now literally pay for what we use Plus 20.00 basic charge. What a relief!!! Edison is Killer in rates and Tiers and they are not coming down anytime in the future.
We rented a summer cabin for the winter for 200.00 a month and have now managed to save over 7000.00 to put back in savings.(that would have been eaten by housing costs)
We have had enough money left over to have our truck serviced in several areas we could no longer afford to do in California.
groceries that used to cost our family well over 700 a month for the basics now cost under 300.00.
The biggest difference is we have the same amount of money to struggle with, only it goes alot farther now.
I miss our family, but unfortunately many folk that were born in California are now financially priced out.
I would consider this when contemplating a move there, because once the Honeymoon period is over, reality is once again upon us.
June 26, 2013 at 10:45 am
Kay
where did you move to? I used to live in LA and now I live in Miami and I really think its time for me to go elsewhere. Everyone thinks Miami is a vacation, but not when you live here and cant afford basic things. I was considering Portland, Seattle or Chicago.
March 28, 2012 at 12:13 pm
D Rant
Ahaa! So that is why all non native Californians are such assholes!
April 22, 2012 at 1:48 am
Roger
“why does anyone start a business when 80% of them fail in five years?”
Keep in mind that “failure” does not entail “net loss.” Businesses can run for a few years, make the owner a profit, and then die.
June 18, 2012 at 5:45 pm
jeanlbk
The varying economies and other differences of individual states is one of the strengths of our nation — a fact often forgotten by national legislators. California is a dream place for some, and a nightmare for others. Housing is often expensive, but the weather and landscape can be great — if one lives in the right part of California. The other day it was 79 degrees where I was and 104 degrees 15 miles up the road. So it behooves the potential mover to examine the facts … and to think of what it means to have relatives nearby, and to consider the friendliness factor. Californians are often more reserved and formal in relationships … it is a good idea to have an appointment before dropping by … and to know this, too. Each state has its own uniqueness. All the people who went to the gold rush … it didn’t turn out the way they thought for many. It is good to do a little research before moving.
June 27, 2012 at 10:59 pm
jon
I got a job transfer from indiana to san luis obispo. it lasted 4 months and i hit the road. i didnt find it a very friendly place. the weather was ok. id much rather been down towards ventura. slo is kinda a college town n i found it over rated. and the homeless….wow so many. not sure how that town got such a good rep. to me it was just ok. not bad but nothing special.
December 4, 2012 at 3:27 am
Valerio Filoso
Winner’s curse, again…
May 4, 2013 at 11:06 am
replica hermes handbags birkin
Hello, your articles here A Simple Theory Why Moving To California Doesn’t Live Up To Expectations | Cheap Talk to write well, thanks for sharing!
March 18, 2014 at 8:19 pm
Ganpat
長實集團主席李嘉誠的個人基金會在2007 年底 以6, 000 萬美元 4. 68 億港元 買入facebook的0. 4%股權 被問及有否開設帳戶時 他笑言自己沒有玩facebook 我個人嗎 我時間咁多 即工作太忙 點會自己整個名 自己去跟人交私心 我點樣做 點樣做 被人點擊都點 爆 了 誠哥的答案很CUTE 佢唔開facebook aoccunt 原來係擔心個人身份暴露後 aoccunt會被人點擊點 爆 我聽後也笑了 做大事的人答問題都幽默過人
January 1, 2014 at 10:17 pm
Tirupati tour packages from Chennai
Great article and i really love this article. when i read this article i’m get into my past life. thanks for sharing this one..
January 28, 2014 at 5:28 am
tirupati tour packages
Really nice post and i great to see this kind of blog. thanks..:)
February 17, 2014 at 9:25 am
Aleena
I like to Move to to APPLE VALLEY, CA; the former home of Roy Rogers and Dale Evan.
May 9, 2014 at 6:13 am
Anoop
Yha; Moving to CA is not an eazy job; it’s one of the most expensive place on the earth. So; every one should need a better understanding about Caliornia. I think this cool inforgraphic will help peoples who looking for a move towards the California–>> http://www.helpmovingtocalifornia.com/blog/california-things-to-know-before-moving/
July 20, 2014 at 12:26 am
Jay
When I visited California I absolutely loved it; then 3 years ago I was made to move here for my husband’s job and a position I was in as well. Now all I want to do is go back to the Midwest. I “live” in the Bay Area and while I love the state; it is gorgeous and tons of things to do; the people are what drive me crazy. Almost every person I’ve talked with, who is not from California and who lives there now, has experienced this feeling. The friendliness of the Midwest has no presence here. Even the Midwesterners lose their kindness. My theory is that the culture clashes just cause people to disregard each other. They look right through each other, as though they don’t even know another person is there. This is experienced from driving, walking, shopping, even at work. It makes me sad that such a gorgeous place is not the peace loving easy going place most of us from outside of the state thought it was…
March 15, 2015 at 9:20 pm
Anonymous
maybe if none of you actually moved here, it would be that much better for us local, native born and raised Southern Californians. We really don’t have time for your mentality and get tired of hearing your perspective. Either figure it out or move back to your fat ass mid west….
August 29, 2014 at 2:44 am
Bob
California is like the perfect sugar. Sweet and wonderful. Unfortunately, it’s also infested with colonies of ants, all more than willing to step on top of one another for their little spot in the sugar cube. Midwesterners will be dismayed at the lack of ethics in work, God or friendship.
The Midwest is like a baked potato. Rugged, not sexy, and not ready to eat, but good for you. Strong Californians that can learn to stand on their own two feet will do well, especially if they can find God. Those looking for the game to play or the fashionable trophies to display will be disappointed.