Do you know about the Nemmers Prize in Economics?  It is a prestigious prize awarded biennially in recognition of “major contributions to new knowledge or the development of significant new modes of analysis.” It comes with a significant monetary award funded originally via a gift from the Nemmers brothers to Northwestern University.  (There are also Nemmers Prizes in Mathematics and Music Composition.)

The Nemmers wanted the prize to eventually carry a degree prestige that would rival the Nobel Prizes.  So far 9 prizes have been awarded and 5 of those recipients have gone on to win Nobel Prizes.  (The Nemmers charter forbids giving the award to a previous Nobel Laureate.)  They are

  1. Peter Diamond (Nemmers 1994 Nobel 2010)
  2. Tom Sargent (Nemmers 1996 Nobel 2011)
  3. Bob Aumann (Nemmers 1998 Nobel 2005)
  4. Dan McFadden (Nemmers 2000 Nobel later that same year)
  5. Ed Prescott (Nemmers 2002 Nobel 2004)

Indeed each of the first 5 Nemmers winners later won Nobels.  The next four, Ariel Rubinstein, Lars Hansen, Paul Milgrom, and Elhanan Helpman are perennial favorites in department pools and polls.

If you had placed your Nobel bets over the last decade based on the Nemmers record you would have made some money.