Pennsylvania is considering a change in how it allocates electoral votes in Presidential elections. Currently, like nearly all other states, Pennsylvania’s electoral votes are up for grabs in a winner-take-all contest. All 20 of its votes go to the candidate who receives the largest share of the popular vote in the state. The state’s Republican party, currently in control of the legislature and the governor’s office, is considering a switch to a system in which each of the 18 congressional districts in the state would award a vote to the winner in that district. (I believe the remaining two would be decided by state-wide popular vote.)
There are a number of ways to think about the incentives to switch between these two systems. One way is to ask how it will effect the overall flow of campaign dollars/favors to the state. On this score, in a state like Pennsylvania, the proportional-vote system is clearly better.
Only one Republican Presidential candidate has carried the state in the last 25 years. The cost of increasing Republican vote share by a few percentage points would be wasted in a state where Democrats begin with such a large advantage. But in a proportional system such an investment can pay off. The Republican party will now spend to compete for the marginal vote and Democrats will likely spend to defend it.
Of course the real question is how a state with a strong Democratic leaning could be expected to vote to switch to a system that will not only channel money to Republican districts but also help the Republican Presidential candidates.
Note that the opposite ranking holds in a more competitive state. If the two parties are on equal terms in a state, then a winner-take-all system gives a huge reward to a party who invests enough to gain a 1% advantage in vote-share. By contrast a proportional system offers at most a single vote in return for that same investment. Such a state maximizes its electoral spoils by sticking with winner-take-all. And with no majority party these economic incentives should dominate.
Taking stock of both of these two cases, it is not surprising that almost all states use a winner-take-all system. Indeed, Nebraska, one of the few states with a proportional system may soon switch to winner-take-all.
Cheap Talk 
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September 18, 2011 at 10:57 pm
John B. Chilton
Some further twists here,
http://www.npr.org/2011/09/16/140543466/pa-may-change-electoral-college-allocation-rules
September 19, 2011 at 3:37 am
David Gonzales
And an enjoyable and interesting (at least to me) report modeling such twists can be read at:
Title: Contingent Prize Allocation and Pivotal Voting
Authors: Alastair Smith, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Click to access Smith.pdf
September 22, 2011 at 3:10 pm
mvymvy
A “proportional” method is not used by any state, and is not what Pennsylvania is proposing.
Republican legislators are twisted as pretzels about the merits of the “congressional district” method. The leadership committee of the Nebraska Republican Party just adopted a resolution requiring all GOP elected officials to favor overturning their district method for awarding electoral votes or lose the party’s support. While in Pennsylvania, Republican legislators insist we must change from the winner-take-all method to the district method.
And up in Maine, the only other state beside Nebraska to use the district method, Mike Tipping reports on Republicans, also newly in the majority like their counterparts in Pennsylvania. Earlier this year, Republican leaders in Maine proposed and passed a constitutional amendment that, if passed at referendum, will require a 2/3rds vote in all future redistricting decisions. Now they want to pass a majority-only plan.
Dividing Pennsylvania’s electoral votes by district would magnify the worst features of the system and not reflect the diversity of Pennsylvania.
The district approach would provide less incentive for presidential candidates to campaign in all Pennsylvania districts and would not focus the candidates’ attention to issues of concern to the whole state. Candidates would have no reason to campaign in districts where they are comfortably ahead or hopelessly behind.
Due to gerrymandering, in 2008, only 4 Pennsylvania districts were competitive.
In Maine, where they award electoral votes by congressional district, the closely divided 2nd congressional district received campaign events in 2008 (whereas Maine’s 1st reliably Democratic district was ignored)
In Nebraska, which also uses the district method, the 2008 presidential campaigns did not pay the slightest attention to the people of Nebraska’s reliably Republican 1st and 3rd congressional districts because it was a foregone conclusion that McCain would win the most popular votes in both of those districts. The issues relevant to voters of the 2nd district (the Omaha area) mattered, while the (very different) issues relevant to the remaining (mostly rural) 2/3rds of the state were irrelevant.
When votes matter, presidential candidates vigorously solicit those voters. When votes don’t matter, they ignore those areas.
Nationwide, there are only 55 “battleground” districts that are competitive in presidential elections. 88% of the nation’s congressional districts would be ignored if a district-level winner-take-all system were used nationally.
If the district approach were used nationally, it would be less fair and less accurately reflect the will of the people than the current system. In 2004, Bush won 50.7% of the popular vote, but 59% of the districts. Although Bush lost the national popular vote in 2000, he won 55% of the country’s congressional districts.
Awarding electoral votes by congressional district could result in third party candidates winning electoral votes that would deny either major party candidate the necessary majority vote of electors and throw the process into Congress to decide.
Because there are generally more close votes on district levels than states as whole, district elections increase the opportunity for error. The larger the voting base, the less opportunity there is for an especially close vote.
Also, a second-place candidate could still win the White House without winning the national popular vote.
September 22, 2011 at 3:11 pm
mvymvy
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Under National Popular Vote, every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. Every vote would be included in the national count. The candidate with the most popular votes in all 50 states would get the 270+ electoral votes from the enacting states. That majority of electoral votes guarantees the candidate with the most popular votes in all 50 states wins the presidency.
National Popular Vote would give a voice to the minority party voters in each state and district (in ME and NE). Now their votes are counted only for the candidate they did not vote for. Now they don’t matter to their candidate.
With National Popular Vote, elections wouldn’t be about winning states or districts (in ME and NE). No more distorting and divisive red and blue state and district maps. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). The recent Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University poll shows 72% support for direct nationwide election of the President. Support is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed iin recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO– 68%, IA –75%, MI– 73%, MO– 70%, NH– 69%, NV– 72%, NM– 76%, NC– 74%, OH– 70%, PA — 78%, VA — 74%, and WI — 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE –75%, ME — 77%, NE — 74%, NH –69%, NV — 72%, NM — 76%, RI — 74%, and VT — 75%; in Southern and border states: AR –80%, KY — 80%, MS –77%, MO — 70%, NC — 74%, and VA — 74%; and in other states polled: CA — 70%, CT — 74% , MA — 73%, MN – 75%, NY — 79%, WA — 77%, and WV- 81%.
On Election Night, most voters don’t care whether their presidential candidate wins or loses in their state… they care whether he/she wins the White House. Voters want to know, that even if they were on the losing side, their vote actually was directly and equally counted and mattered to their candidate. Most Americans consider the idea of the candidate with the most popular votes being declared a loser detestable. We don’t allow this in any other election in our representative republic.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, RI, VT, and WA. The bill has been enacted by DC (3), HI (4), IL (19), NJ (14), MD (11), MA (10), CA (55), VT (3), and WA (13). These 9 jurisdictions possess 132 electoral votes — 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
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