Never ask a woman if she is pregnant right? The explanation given to me is that if it turns out she is not pregnant you are in big trouble. But, what if I keep quiet and she really is pregnant. Then she’s thinking “he doesn’t think I am pregnant. That means he thinks I am actually fat in real life. Bastard.” So I am not sure I agree with the conventional wisdom here.
Maybe you are just being cautioned against equivocation. If you ask then you don’t know and whatever the answer is, your uncertainty reveals that you considered it a possibility that she’s fat. Under this theory the right strategy is to use your best judgement and just come out and pronounce it with no hesitation.
Cheap Talk 
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July 22, 2009 at 5:52 am
Amitav
Isn’t this a case where cultural norms set the default position? I claim that “good manners” force me to say nothing (perhaps smile ambivalently and make small talk about the weather) until the woman or a third party informs me of a pregnancy. Then there is the manner of congratulations– one can be surprised/delighted (“my gosh you don’t show a bit”) or knowing/smiling (“my gosh you look set to burst”). One must select the proper delivery mode.
As in all matters of male/female etiquette, when in doubt I pull my wife aside for directions.
July 22, 2009 at 8:10 am
Amitav
I’m with Amitav. It’s just not good manners to make comments about other people bodies.
July 22, 2009 at 10:06 am
Anshu
My first year computer science prof looked pregnant. A couple weeks into the class, it looked like she was showing even more, and it even looked like she was wearing maternity clothes (with an expandable portion at the waist). I, and many of my friends who noticed the same thing, became convinced she must be at least 4 months pregnant.
By the end of the semester, it became clear that she was not, in fact, pregnant, as she still looked exactly the same and was still wearing the same clothes. We were all glad we never said anything to her about it.
That experience taught me no matter how sure you are about a woman’s pregnancy, just keep quiet.
July 22, 2009 at 11:39 am
hern
i so want to model this over time, because i think the consequences vary depending on how far along she is.
July 22, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Lawrence M
I agree with the above comments. As Amitav says, you don’t know whether you should congratulate them. Furthermore, some couples don’t like to announce the pregnancy until late into the pregnancy b/c of fears of a miscarriage.
This is what I say, “Wow! You look amazing!” She can guide the conversation from there.
July 22, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Divya
I agree with comments above. I wouldn’t mention at all to strangers but to friends I would mention what Lawrence M suggests.
June 17, 2010 at 9:03 pm
twicker
Here’s a place where Saying Nothing works well.
An aside: I once gave a pregnant friend (whom I already *knew* to be pregnant, because she told me on the phone) a great compliment by mentioning that she did, indeed, look pregnant. She asked how I could possibly tell the difference between being pregnant and being fat.
I said, “Well, your abdomen is larger than normal, but your arms and face show that you’re still very fit. Therefore, you’re not fat; you’re pregnant.”
This seemed to go over well …