Excellent article by Lawrence Wright:
Al Qaeda was originally envisioned as a kind of Sunni foreign legion, which would defend Muslim lands from Western occupation….
Bin Laden had asked Zarqawi [founder of ISIS] to merge his forces with Al Qaeda, in 2000, but Zarqawi had a different goal in mind. He hoped to provoke an Islamic civil war, and, for his purposes, there was no better venue than the fractured state of Iraq, which sits astride the Sunni-Shiite fault line….Violent attacks would create a network of “regions of savagery,” which would multiply as the forces of the state wither away, and cause people to submit to the will of the invading Islamist force….[A] broad civil war within Islam would lead to a fundamentalist Sunni caliphate.
In other words, Al Qaeda is focussed on expelling the West from the Middle East but ISIS is focussed on creating a Sunni Islamic superstate. Hence, Al Qaeda attacks the West but ISIS attacks Shiites. This leads to different “realist” policy prescriptions – self-interest implies attacking Al Qaeda but not necessarily ISIS. It leads to the same neocon policy prescriptions – there will be a humanitarian crisis from civil war and democracy (to the extent Iraq is a democracy) is threatened. Hence, send in the troops say Kristol and Kagan, just as they did before Gulf War II.
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June 17, 2014 at 1:44 pm
RJD
The real story here is the consequences of losing focus. The US under Bush largely succeeded in clearing Iraq of Islamic terrorist by implementing the surge, killing Zarqawi, and developing ties to the Sunni minority. These gains, paid for dearly in terms of American lives and treasure, were foolishly frittered away when it became clear that all Obama really cared about was getting out of Iraq, which created a power vacuum, while at the same time trying to remove Assad in Syria, which would create another power vacuum.
The Russians think we are insane removing stable governments under the false guise of an “Arab Spring”, as these power vacuums are openings for relatively small groups of terrorists to seize power. Iraq’s Malaki looked at the US withdrawal and turned to his Shiite base and Iran to save his skin. Now we are reaping the fruits of this feckless policy.
At this point our options are limited. If we are to prevent the Sunni/Shiite war that ISIS wants to destabilize the entire Middle East without letting Iran in, we need to fill the power vacuum in Iraq and stabilize the country. At the same time, it is clear the US public will not tolerate a major US military effort to do this. What is needed is a large force of Arab League troops with US air and logistical support. Unfortunately, our relationship with the largest Arab power, Egypt, is in tatters thank to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama’s total ineptitude. Maybe if we come crawling on our knees with $billions in cash they will help us anyway, as Egypt’s rulers, like Russia’s Putin, understand that Islamic terrorism is a cancer that must be destroyed, not ignored.
December 21, 2014 at 8:19 pm
david ray leavitt
At this late stage of the game however with a mindless us power structure, and everyone in Washington just Obama drones then it behooves the US and Israel to spearhead a possible nuclear thrust into concentrated areas of occupation by ISIS. we can use low level nuclear arms like artillery rounds. The Isis movement does not care for life as anyone else believes, Lets just hit the biggest concentrations of them as possible. Screw the collateral damage or innocence. better a few than the whole world be kept in bondage to murderers thieves and despots.
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