Some economists toiled away in Stockholm on U.S. Labor Day.  They were attending the Nobel Symposium on Growth and Development.  This implies that the 2012 Prize cannot be in Growth and Development.  The fallout from the symposium has to settle before a Prize is awarded.  Next year is probably still too early so my guess is that a growth and development prize will be awarded in 2014 or later.

Looking at the program, a few people can be excluded as they are too young to get it now.  The pivotal voter will be Robert Lucas who has enormous scientific credibility on this topic and is also attending the symposium.