The Steelers have a five point lead, the ball and there are two minutes to go. The Jets started slow but are breathing down their necks. Should they run the ball or throw it?
Running the ball is the safe option. Pretty much the only way the Jets can win is if they intercept the ball, get possession and score a touchdown. There is less chance of that happening if the Steelers run the ball. The downside is that the Jets are expecting this strategy and are prepared for it. Throwing the ball has the advantage of surprise and so:
With two minutes remaining and Pittsburgh clinging to a five-point lead facing third-and-6 from the New York Jets’ 40-yard line, Tomlin walked over to his offensive coaches and said in so many words, “We’re playing to win, throw the ball.”
And they got the advantage of surprise:
Heck Ryan, himself a guy who is never afraid to announce his presence, was shocked at what he saw as the Steelers came to the line in a five-receiver, shotgun formation.
“I was actually shocked they didn’t run the football,” Ryan said…. “They spread us out and … I actually expected them to run a quarterback draw there.”
Cheap Talk 
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January 24, 2011 at 10:14 am
Anonymous
“Pretty much the only way the Jets can win is if they intercept the ball, get possession and score a touchdown.”
An incomplete pass would also have given the Jets a legitimate shot at winning, since they would have received a punt with a reasonable amount of time on the clock.
January 24, 2011 at 10:42 am
Sandeep Baliga
I agree but this amplifies my point
January 24, 2011 at 10:29 am
DRDR
Conventional wisdom is you should always run in that situation, but it’s not so simple.
Run the ball, and the overwhelmingly likely outcome is the Jets get the ball with 1:10 or so left and need to drive 80 or so yards.
Pass the ball, there are several outcomes
–complete the pass, and the game is over, as happened
–incomplete pass, which means the Jets get the ball with 1:50 or so left instead of 1:10
–sack or QB scramble, which likely results in a slight loss of field position, but still runs the clock
–QB fumble or interception or interception return for TD, potentially deadly
There are various situational factors to consider here that may tilt the optimal decision clearly in favor of a pass
–The Pitt D has been on the field most of the 4th Quarter and is gassed, making the “win now” option very appealing
–Pitt has a mobile, sturdy, veteran QB who can choose to go down in play rather than throw the ball away (and thus still run the clock), and can also be trusted more than most not to throw a dangerous INT
–The surprise element you mentioned, but I don’t believe it’s the dominant factor
Switching for normative theory to positive theory, consider lessons from David Romer’s paper on 4th-and-short attempts. Many coaches are risk-averse, so they choose the certain outcome of running the clock down to 1:20 rather than risk an incompletion or interception. Romer suggests this is because losing on such risks is what leads to firings. Coaches like Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick who’ve won Super Bowls have more job security and can thus make choices closer to the risk-neutral optimum.
January 24, 2011 at 10:37 am
DRDR
Also, this game illustrated Romer’s point why it’s often smart to go for 4th-and-Goal from the 1-yard line. Even though the Jets’ attempt failed, Pitt had to start from its 1-yard line against an excellent Jets D, and it led to a safety. The Jets then received the ball after the safety on a punt, which gives them excellent field position at their own 40, and they score a touchdown against a Pitt defense who is already tired from the previous drive. This potential to benefit from the opponent’s poor field position after the failed conversion, and the potential 9 point rather than 7 point swing of a safety & TD, are often not taken into account.
On the flip side, going for 4th-and-Goal from the 1 right before halftime (as happened in a recent game this season) is not as appealing because you lose this advantage of leaving your opponent with poor field position, because they just take a knee and the half is over.