I want to make a prediction. But I want to do it like this:
- Keep the prediction secret, indeed even keeping secret what the prediction is about.
- Have the prediction revealed at some pre-specified future date.
- Have it certified that the prediction was recorded on a certain date and not changed after that.
Is there a web service that facilitates predictions like this? It would be a useful service. There are probably lots of reasons someone would want to keep their predictions secret prior to the resolution: you don’t want your prediction to be self-fulfilling (or self-defeating), you don’t want others to know what you are predicting about (maybe it arises out of some proprietary research), or you want to trade anonymously on your prediction.
If anyone has any ideas, please let me know in the comments below.
Addendum: Mallesh correctly points out in the comments that the system would have to publicize that you made a prediction. This I want to do.