The most likely outcome for the Trump Presidency is that it will  (W) Bush  2.0 with some Trumpian twists. Specifically:

  1. Tax cuts for the wealthy: No brainer
  2. Rolling back financial regulation: No-brainer
  3. Comeuppance for 1 and 2: Either another bubble like 2008 or huge deficits leading eventually to a tax increase (like Reagan to (H.W.) Bush).
  4. Another war: Trump is thin-skinned and hence a prime candidate for manipulation by terrorists who seek to escalate conflict. So, another war beckons. Probably, Syria in a coalition with Putin.

Trumpian twists:

  1. Construction: Trump is will try to build roads, bridges, infrastructure etc. This is an anathema to Paul Ryan et al. They will try to prevent this so not clear how much will happen. Democrats of course will be into this and will try to help Trump achieve it.
  2. Russia expansion: Putin will co-opt Baltic States. NATO will not defend hence this will be the end of NATO credibility.
  3. Trade: Token tariffs will be imposed. Maybe Carrier Air Conditioner will be made into an example. But given threat of retaliation by trading partners, Ryan/McConnell will dampen trade controls. Whatever happens, there will be little impact on jobs as technological change means fewer workers needed in manufacturing.
  4. The Wall: He will build a tall but small wall. TV crews will film it. Construction will stop but Trump will lie and say he built whole thing.
  5. Racism will go up: No-Brainer.

 

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