Actions speak louder than words. Anarchists seeking to spread revolution resort to extreme acts hoping to stir the sympathy of the general population. Would be change-agents differ in their favored instrument of provocation – assassination, bombings or general strike. They are united by their intrinsic lack of real power. They only way they can hope to achieve their ends is by persuading other players to react and indirectly give them what they want. As such, the “propaganda of the deed” in practiced typically by people on the fringe of society, not in the corridors of power. (See my paper The Strategy of Manipulating Conflict with Tomas Sjöström for illustrations of this strategy.)
But Mubarak has reached this lowly state even as President of Egypt. He has conspicuously lost popular support and tensions long suppressed have burst asunder for all to see. He has lost the support of “the people” and, perhaps even more importantly, the army. What can he do to get it back? The anti-Mubarak protestors have till recently refrained from looting and mob mentality has been notable for its absence. As long as that remains the case, the army and the people are siding with the anti-Mubarak protestors or largely staying out of the fray. Mubarak’s only hope is to get the people and the army to pick his side. He needs to energize the mob and trigger looting. That is his strategy. Police disappeared from the streets of Cairo a few days ago, inviting looters to run amok. That did not work. So, now he has employed pro-Mubarak “supporters” to fight anti-Mubarak protestors. Open fighting on the streets of Cairo, prodding the army to step in. The people scared of the outbreak of lawlessness turning to the strongman Mubarak to return some semblance of stability to the city and the country. This is where we are in the last couple of days. Another obvious strategy for Mubarak: Get his supporters to loot and pin it on the anti-Mubarak protestors. Not sure if that is happening yet.
What can be done to subvert the Mubarak strategy? For the protestors, the advice is obvious – no looting, no breakdown of law and order. The primary audience is the army and people – keep them on your side. For the Obama administration there is little leverage over Mubarak. I assume he has hidden away millions if not billions – cutting off future aid has little chance of persuading Mubarak to do anything. Again, the army is the primary audience for the Obama administration. Whichever side they pick will win. The army cares more about the cutoff of future aid than Mubarak. They have trained in US military schools and have connections here. The only leverage the Obama administration has is over the army and it is hard to tell how strong that leverage is.
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February 3, 2011 at 10:08 am
k
so, it boils down to where does the army go?
February 3, 2011 at 1:49 pm
jeff
Very prescient. Here is update #134 from the Mother Jones Egypt blog. (essential reading on the events: http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/01/whats-happening-egypt-explained#Feb3)
UPDATE 134, Thursday, Feb. 3, 2:25 p.m. EST/ Thursday, Feb. 3, 9:25 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): I just spoke with Khaled Abou El Naga, an Egyptian filmmaker who lives in the Cairo suburb of Heliopolis. Khaled has participated in the protests since they began on January 25 in Tahrir Square. Just back from the square, a feverish Khaled fears the worst is yet to come. “This regime is trying to hijack the country by spreading chaos, and terror, and lies,” he says. And he thinks that Mubarak and his army of thugs is preparing “for a total crush” of the protestors still in the square. “The plot is very clear. They will have messages that things will be under control, we will investigate who started the violence—they know who started the violence!”
Pro-Mubarak thugs have been streaming into Tahrir Square since yesterday, attacking protestors from its main entrances. They’ve also been targeting the press, taking out video cameras and chasing away reporters. Some even climbed to the tops of buildings overlooking the square, armed with sniper rifles. “With snipers, you just find people dead. You don’t hear anything. That’s what happened,” he says.
According to Khaled, the police have been given orders to sow chaos by driving into neighborhoods, firing their guns in the air, and looting stores. “The police became a tool to terrorize Egyptians,” he says. He also says that the Interior Ministry, which controls the city’s ambulances, is using the emergency vehicles to bring tear gas into the square. Doctors haven’t been able to get into the square; one of Khaled’s own friends, a doctor, was accused of being a CIA agent when he tried to approach Tahrir Square.
Egyptian state television, meanwhile, has continued feeding fire to the lies that the anti-government protestors were responsible for the violence. “State television agitated people more and more,” he said. “They kept saying these are looters who went into Tahrir Square, they’re trying to break stability in Egypt, and they said that they started the violence. All of these are lies that agitated people more.”
But he fears that many Egyptians are buying into the messages of Mubarak, Vice President Omar Suleiman, and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq: that order and calm are soon to be restored. “People think, ‘oh see the government finally is trying to do something about it and take control.’ Well at the same time, the violence is still there, the circling of Tahrir Square [by pro-Mubarak forces] is still there—the plot is right there….Unfortunately, a lot of Egyptians are confused now. They think maybe we should just wait until he leaves in September. He will never leave.”
The regime’s plan, as Khaled sees it: disseminate (misinformation), (violently) disrupt, and purge. “I’m telling you, with all the singals I’m reading from the state’s people, that they are preparing for a complete crush of Tahrir Square.”
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