Two guys named David Pendelbury and Eugene Garfield use citation counts (combined with some other magic) to predict Nobel laureates.  They claim success:   they have“correctly predicted at least one Nobel Laureate each year with the exception of the years 1993 and 1996.”  Granted, since they are picking 5 or so people in four fields (Chemistry, Economics, Physics, Medicine) that doesn’t seem like such a big deal.

But for the record, here are the predictions for Economics.

  1. Alberto Alesina for theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, and specifically for research on politico-economic cycle.
  2. Nobu Kiyotaki for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment.
  3. John Moore for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment.
  4. Kevin Murphy for pioneering empirical research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, addiction, and the economic return of investment in medical research, among other topics