What do you do in the following awkward situation? your friend receives an invitation to a party. The host is also your friend but you haven’t received an invitation.
Was the invitation lost in the mail or were you not invited? You can’t ask the host directly because it would be too uncomfortable if the answer was you weren’t invited. But in the event that the invitation was lost in the mail it is in all parties’ interest in having that uncertainty resolved.
There would seem no custom that would allow communication of the good news and at the same time avoid communication of the bad news.
But RSVP does exactly that, as long as the custom is to RSVP both acceptances and regrets. Then if you were invited but you do not RSVP the host will know you didn’t get the invitation, and send a followup.
Game theorists will notice that the bad news can still be inferred. If the host does not follow up then you learn that you were not invited. But the beauty if this system is that it is never common knowledge. The host never knows with certainty that you know about the party you weren’t invited to. You know about the party but you know that the host does not know that you know, etc… This higher-order uncertainty goes a long way in alleviating the awkwardness.
More generally there is value in social conventions that allow non-public communication: exchange of information, especially bad news, without making that information common knowledge.

6 comments
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May 26, 2010 at 10:25 pm
ryan
…but the odds that an invitation is lost = very low.
May 26, 2010 at 10:28 pm
jeff
not if you have a spouse who is an aggressive recycler of incoming mail.
also, what matters is the relative likelihood of lost invitation vs. not invited. if its a close friend then its also low probability that you were not invited. so conditional on the low probability event of not receiving an invitation the probability it was lost moves into the relevant range.
May 27, 2010 at 2:56 am
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the odds that an invitation is lost = not very low.
May 27, 2010 at 9:32 am
michael webster
Interesting analysis of the convention – I assumed that the purpose was for only for planning and getting people to commit one way or the other. Have you done any empirical analysis on this?
November 23, 2010 at 3:02 pm
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