OK, so far I managed to resist writing a post about Tiger but I can’t help leaping into an analysis of the future strategy of Joe Lieberman.  Let me begin by collecting some quotes and thoughts.  My favorite post is “Toward a Unified Theory of Lieberman” (the title alone takes this into home run territory) by Jonathan Chait at TNR.  It begins with this pithy paragraph:

It has been a banner day for the field of Lieberman Psychology. My own contribution is that Lieberman is not as smart as people think he is, and certainly not detail-oriented or well-versed in public policy.

Chait has an even more prescient analysis in an earlier post:

Lieberman thinks about politics in terms of broad ideological labels. He’s the heroic centrist voice pushing legislation to the center. No, Lieberman doesn’t have any particular sense of what the Medicare buy-in option would do to the national debt. If the liberals like it, then he figures it’s big government and he should oppose it. I think it’s basically that simple.

Chait’s theory now has huge support as Lieberman says he changed his mind on the Medicare buy-in policy because:

he was particularly troubled by the overly enthusiastic reaction to the proposal by some liberals, including Representative Anthony Weiner, Democrat of New York, who champions a fully government-run health care system.

“Congressman Weiner made a comment that Medicare-buy in is better than a public option, it’s the beginning of a road to single-payer,” Mr. Lieberman said. “Jacob Hacker, who’s a Yale professor who is actually the man who created the public option, said, ‘This is a dream. This is better than a public option. This is a giant step.’”

So, if liberals want it, it must be wrong.

Whatever the heroic narrative he is repeating to himself, Lieberman will eventually realize his position.  He is an anathema to Democrats,  having supported McCain in the general election and now randomly wandering between positions to counteract the left.  He cannot run as a Democrat in 2012 as he will not make it through the primary.  If he runs as an independent, he will face a three way race splitting the vote with the Republican.  So, he will run as a Republican.

Lieberman will move further and further right of center as he realizes he has tp woo Republicans in his home state.  He has his finger in many legislative pies in Congress (same sex marriage, climate change).  He will take the Republican perspective on these and screw them up deliberately.

Obama should get the Senators from Maine into every conversation he can.  They are more secure than Lieberman and their own heroic narrative is more patrician: rich people must look after the common man.   They are to the left of Lieberman and have the most potential for Obama to achieve his agenda.

Or, of course, maybe Joe just wants to become an insurance company lobbyist.   That would explain everything.