Senator Baucus said he could not vote for the public option amendments as they would not get 60 votes in the Senate.  That is, whatever his own narrowly defined preferences, he also has a preference for voting for the winning bill and, in fact, the latter component of his utility swaps the former.

This leads to the obvious issue: on what basis are the Senators Baucus canvassed saying they will not vote for the bill?  If they vote like Baucus, they are also basing their votes on what will pass or not.  The situation is ripe for coordination failure: even if sincere voting based on individual preference would lead to adoption of the public option amendments, the expectation that it will not pass causes people not to vote for it and guarantee that it will not pass.

If this is really as issue, supporters of the pubic option have to create momentum for it and convince Senators it will pass. They they will vote for the public option and it will pass.  A self-fulfilling prophesy.