Guardian Newspaper

Iran is clearly not a full democracy like the United States – there is a Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Khamenei, who controls foreign and nuclear policy and is not subject to general election.  There is a President who is (or was?) elected and controls domestic policy.  There is a council, the Assembly of Experts, that ostensibly determines who is Supreme Leader.  However, they have never acted to remove anyone!  Moreover, the Supreme Leader via the Guardian Council can veto candidates who stand for election for President or the Assembly of Experts!   Confused?  I am.  But here are three excellent depictions of the political systems.

– The BBC version

– Jeff found this one

– The prettiest but most confusing is from the UK Guardian news paper, above.

Once you work it all out it boils down to one thing – Khamenei is the man in charge and always has been (Ahmadinejad is more colorful and has a bigger press presence but he is just the face of the regime).

What is still not clear is whether the election was stolen removing even the veneer of democracy or whether there is a vocal minority in Tehran that does not support Ahmadinejad but Ahmadinejad actually won.

In the past, Khamenei has managed to live with a reformist President, Ayatollah Khatami, by sabotaging his policies behind the scenes.  If he can no longer do that and is behind the stolen election, it means Khamenei is weaker than before.  Weak dictators or even democratic leaders with a weak hold on power do crazier things that a strong dictator because they need some support, e.g. from the army, to survive in power.  Starting a war is one way to try to generate enough support to survive.  (E.g. Galtieri in Argentina). Drumming up popular hatred of an enemy the country must oppose is another related strategy.  So if Khamenei is weaker than before, Iran just got more dangerous.  This means Obama must not give Khamenei/Ahmadinejad an excuse to increase their hold on power by taking bellicose actions that allow them to weaken internal opposition.  For example, making pro-democracy statements can be made to seem like outside interference.  This will lead to people “rallying around the flag” and hence lead to less chance of democracy flowering.

Obama does seem to be keeping a low profile so far.  Let’s wait and see what happens.