Suspicious graph of Ahmadinejad’s vote share? No, says Nate Silver
An excellent analysis from a former National Security Council member.
Where did I find all these? Huffington Post.
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June 14, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Alex
I made the same observation as Nate Silver yesterday. The best evidence for a rigged election will be how many people take to the streets and what kind of response there is from the government. If Ahmadinejad really got 60% of the votes then they shouldn’t have to worry about a popular uprising.
Unfortunately, there’s too little news and too much hearsay to know exactly what’s going on over there. I hope that more reliable news becomes available in a few days.
June 15, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Anshu
I disagree that public shows of discontent are in any way a reliable indicator of popular opinion. I need look no further than the province of Ontario for an example in the recent past. Major clashes with police, protests in the streets, many groups picketing against the Harris government.
And then he was re-elected with an even larger majority.
A relatively small minority can quite easily create the illusion that they are representative of a larger portion of the population than they actually are.
June 15, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Alex
Agreed, that in itself the crowds are not a great indicator. However, as I said I think the crowds combined with the government’s response to the crowds could be. If the government knows that Ahmadinejad won then their actions could signal that they know they are dealing with nothing more than a vocal minority. Likewise if they know that he lost then their actions could signal that they know he lost and they are truly worried about a popular uprising.