This pains me: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhCDXfeTJUvWdFFNa3FMNlh0LTIyUnBicmItWjJQSEE#gid=6

Should have had a friend enter a shill bracket.

]]>I believe I am far ahead of the field, there should be an update tonight when this round is over. I was the only one to pick LaSalle, Harvard and FGCU.

]]>I don’t think Jeff would do something elaborate just to signal his cleverness ðŸ™‚

]]>Pulling off such information manipulation may be difficult. However, player 1 could also show ONLY player 2 his picks, and not tell player 3 about any of this. I think this too would help player 1.

So Jeff, who is the sucker now?

]]>The above shows the worry with your strategy here. Imagine we are in the one-game, three-bidder, p=5/8 case. In simultaneous bidding, you (using the appropriate mixed strategy) can guarantee 1/3 of the payout in expectation. If you move first and choose the favorite, then if 2 and 3 bid sequentially, you will get 5/16<1/3 of the payoff. If, alternatively, 2 and 3 move simultaneously after your announcement, they will mix symmetrically such that the payoff from taking the underdog and the favorite are identical; therefore if there is any mixing, the payoff from taking the favorite and the dog are equal, and since it is easy to show that mixing is optimal, all players earn payoff 1/3, giving no advantage to moving first.

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