“That is, they allocate their responses to the two options in proportion

to their relative payoff probabilities.

Thus suppose that a monetary payoff of fixed size is given with probability p=0.7 for choosing left and with probability 1-p=0.3 for choosing right.

Probability matching refers to behavior in which left is chosen on about 70% of trials and right on 30%.

Such responding violates rational choice theory because the optimal strategy in such tasks, after an initial period of experimentation and assuming that the payoff probabilities are stationary, is always to select the

option associated with the higher probability of payoff.

On any trial, the expected payoff for choosing left is higher than the expected payoff for choosing right.”

Perhaps this matching behavior is a nod to the Kelly criterion?

]]>As a matter of aesthetic, I am at the forefront of a worldwide movement in our field to stop using ln, and go back to log. Euler invented logs and base e was implied. Then for the longest time, slide rules were all the rage. And base 10 was in. And of course, computer science came along with its fascination with binary. But dammit, our whole profession means base e when it writes log (with a few weird exceptions that no doubt someone will point out). As such, let us agree to use the suggestive word “log” rather than the needless ln — which our wonderful high school calculus teacher used to call “lawn”.

All I am saying is: On all your papers, give peace a chance! And log too! Let us kill the lawn beast once and for all.

Oh, and nice post Arthur. ^_^

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