Fangraphs has been making graphs for baseball that are very much like the graphs you start your presentation with. Here is the graph for the last game of the season:

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2012-10-28&team=Tigers&dh=0&season=2012

They break down both the win probability (in the top graph) and what you call the suspense (but they call the leverage) in the bottom graph. I believe their graphs are also based on forward simulation from each game state, and the probabilities used in simulation are historical averages.

Your tennis graphs make the point equally well, but it might be useful to have a set of graphs that sports experts made, rather than your more ad hoc (but very reasonable) approach. Some sports writers have also argued that win probability is doing a good job measuring the excitement of the game, consistent with your argument.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-makes-an-exciting-game-revisited/

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