Comments on: Whoever Achieves Mediocrity At The Most Things Wins http://cheaptalk.org/2012/12/15/whoever-achieves-mediocrity-at-the-most-things-wins/ A blog about economics, politics and the random interests of forty-something professors Wed, 22 May 2013 18:12:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Dan http://cheaptalk.org/2012/12/15/whoever-achieves-mediocrity-at-the-most-things-wins/#comment-22969 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 17:33:07 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12646#comment-22969 Wonderful playing Jeff! It’s very impressive.

]]> By: Dan http://cheaptalk.org/2012/12/15/whoever-achieves-mediocrity-at-the-most-things-wins/#comment-22967 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 16:31:32 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12646#comment-22967 Hi Jeff,

Fangraphs has been making graphs for baseball that are very much like the graphs you start your presentation with. Here is the graph for the last game of the season:

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2012-10-28&team=Tigers&dh=0&season=2012

They break down both the win probability (in the top graph) and what you call the suspense (but they call the leverage) in the bottom graph. I believe their graphs are also based on forward simulation from each game state, and the probabilities used in simulation are historical averages.

Your tennis graphs make the point equally well, but it might be useful to have a set of graphs that sports experts made, rather than your more ad hoc (but very reasonable) approach. Some sports writers have also argued that win probability is doing a good job measuring the excitement of the game, consistent with your argument.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-makes-an-exciting-game-revisited/

]]> By: Anonymous http://cheaptalk.org/2012/12/15/whoever-achieves-mediocrity-at-the-most-things-wins/#comment-22966 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 16:11:20 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12646#comment-22966 Is there a reason to put suspense before surprise (in the title i.e.)?

]]> By: Mom http://cheaptalk.org/2012/12/15/whoever-achieves-mediocrity-at-the-most-things-wins/#comment-22964 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 15:34:12 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12646#comment-22964 Nice piano playing Jeff!

]]> By: Anticipation - Unofficial Network http://cheaptalk.org/2012/12/15/whoever-achieves-mediocrity-at-the-most-things-wins/#comment-22963 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 15:09:06 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12646#comment-22963 [...] first ten minutes or so of this video discusses win probability graphs in tennis. They are similar to what FanGraphs presents for baseball games. The twist in the video is that the [...]

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