Here’s what I presented on Friday in Cambridge:
And here’s what I presented on Saturday in Chicago:
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December 16, 2012 at 9:09 am
Anticipation - Unofficial Network
[...] first ten minutes or so of this video discusses win probability graphs in tennis. They are similar to what FanGraphs presents for baseball games. The twist in the video is that the [...]
December 16, 2012 at 9:34 am
Mom
Nice piano playing Jeff!
December 16, 2012 at 10:11 am
Anonymous
Is there a reason to put suspense before surprise (in the title i.e.)?
December 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
Dan
Hi Jeff,
Fangraphs has been making graphs for baseball that are very much like the graphs you start your presentation with. Here is the graph for the last game of the season:
http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2012-10-28&team=Tigers&dh=0&season=2012
They break down both the win probability (in the top graph) and what you call the suspense (but they call the leverage) in the bottom graph. I believe their graphs are also based on forward simulation from each game state, and the probabilities used in simulation are historical averages.
Your tennis graphs make the point equally well, but it might be useful to have a set of graphs that sports experts made, rather than your more ad hoc (but very reasonable) approach. Some sports writers have also argued that win probability is doing a good job measuring the excitement of the game, consistent with your argument.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-makes-an-exciting-game-revisited/
December 16, 2012 at 11:33 am
Dan
Wonderful playing Jeff! It’s very impressive.