Comments on: The Expectations Game In Politics http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/ A blog about economics, politics and the random interests of forty-something professors Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:10:08 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Death Valley and the most beautiful road of the world http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/#comment-27029 Wed, 03 Apr 2013 09:04:55 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12097#comment-27029 [...] is this road so beautiful?” I’m glad you ask. I guess it has something to do with the expectations game. I didn’t know what to expect (how beautiful is a desert?), which made it easy to meet and [...]

]]> By: Jonathan Weinstein http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/#comment-18484 Mon, 01 Oct 2012 17:28:07 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12097#comment-18484 For the debate specifically, it’s comical how both sides have been trying to lower expectations and talk up the other guy. This is apparently in the belief that the “winner” will be decided relative to expectations.

]]> By: twicker http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/#comment-18370 Wed, 26 Sep 2012 19:42:02 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12097#comment-18370 With respect to the difference between, “We’re behind, and need to work hard,” which would be expected to rally the troops, and, “Our candidate can’t lead,” which would be expected to suppress them:

ABC News:
Criticism of Romney’s Campaign Grows;
Six in 10 Rate His Efforts Negatively
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/criticism-of-romneys-campaign-grows-six-in-10-rate-his-efforts-negatively/

And:
NYTimes:
Polls Show Obama Widening His Lead in Ohio and Florida
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/polls-show-obama-widening-lead-in-ohio-and-florida.html?_r=1

Even that Peggy Noonan article isn’t about how Republicans need to rally behind Romney; it’s about Romney being, as she says, “incompetent.” Not a word that anyone wants associated with someone they are thinking of voting for. The narrative that’s coming out of the GOP right now is more like your point #1 than #2, IMHO.

]]> By: Anonymous http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/#comment-18364 Wed, 26 Sep 2012 17:35:43 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12097#comment-18364 a good recent example of “information discrimination” is that of orbitz (i believe) showing cheaper hotels to microsoft users and more expensive hotels to apple users. note that the prices for all hotels were the same, just that the ones that showed up at the top of the search results were different. why? their data suggested that microsoft users tended to buy cheaper hotels than apple users.

]]> By: Enrique http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/#comment-18362 Wed, 26 Sep 2012 17:02:48 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12097#comment-18362 This post raises a fascinating possibility, the possibility of “information discrimination” in place of price discrimination as a form of strategic behavior. This, in turn, raises another question: under what circumstances is “information discrimination” efficient from a social cost perspective (assuming, of course, such a clever strategy if feasible)

]]> By: twicker http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/#comment-18349 Wed, 26 Sep 2012 14:04:13 +0000 http://cheaptalk.org/?p=12097#comment-18349 The problem the GOP has with the “disarray” comments is that they can suppress turnout for your own people – because, as a leader, one’s campaign should not be in disarray. Yes, you want your side to believe that you have an uphill battle – but you don’t want your side to believe that you face that battle because you’re a slacker leader. :)

There are also times when, if you believe that you’re very likely to win, then your supporters will come out in even more force. People like being able to identify with great causes, and, if you can convince your supporters that you have a great cause and that they should be part of something huge, then that will get them to turn out. Right now, we’re too evenly split in the country for that to really be the case – and we’re at the point that you’re predicting with your 4 points.

As always, caveat emptor; YMMV. :)

]]>