It’s the canonical example of reference-dependent happiness. Someone from the Midwest imagines how much happier he would be in California but when he finally has the chance to move there he finds that he is just as miserable as he was before.
But can it be explained by a simple selection effect? Suppose that everyone who lives in the Midwest gets a noisy but unbiased signal of how happy they would be in California. Some overestimate how happy they would be and some underestimate it. Then they get random opportunities to move. Who is going to take that opportunity? Those who overestimate how happy they will be. And so when they arrive they are disappointed.
It also explains why people who are forced to leave California, say for job-related reasons, are pleasantly surprised at how happy they can be in the Midwest. Since they hadn’t moved voluntarily already, its likely that they underestimated how happy they would be.
These must be special cases of this paper by Eric van den Steen, and its similar to the logic behind Lazear’s theory behind the Peter Principle. (For the latter link I thank Adriana Lleras-Muney.)
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February 20, 2012 at 7:36 am
twicker
That’s an interesting question – and you may now have some way for getting data to pit the theories against each other. Why? Because we now live in the era of Facebook.
Reading your note, I immediately thought of friends of mine in CA who often compare the weather there to the weather here in NC. Seems to me that, because the folks in CA get Facebook updates about the weather in NC from their friends who are still here (and updates from friends who have now, say, moved to Boston), their reference point is more likely to remain non-CA weather; thus, they should be more likely to experience a boost in happiness. If, however, their reference point is the overestimated happiness you discuss, then they might not.
Sure, there are lots of other variables and processes that might intervene (e.g., move to CA, discover you don’t have a job; move to CA, discover that, even with the recession, housing is still crazy expensive; move to CA, become homesick/not have local friends; etc.), but it might be more testable now.
February 20, 2012 at 11:05 pm
tela
As a native Californian, I’ve certainly witnessed my share of transplants from other parts of the country. It’s probably been going on here since the Gold Rush. The three examples I can think of off the top of my head are people who: 1) Constantly complain about how much worse California is compared with the state they came here fro, 2) Move here because they aspire to be a regional type or industry that are world famous or 3) Move here and become even more local than us locals. Really, the people who come and then never stop complaining about how where they came from is better in comparison are the worst – move back so we don’t have to listen to you anymore!
Bet the bigger example right now is in Portland, the land of (probably vegan and gluten free) Milk and Honey!
February 20, 2012 at 11:12 pm
A Post of Bitterness « Yapping Yak
[...] Why Midwesterners would get disappointed and remain miserable when moved to CA [...]
February 21, 2012 at 12:03 am
Anonymous
I liked Columbus enough. But nothing in America compares wit San Luis Obispo. I do miss the land of my childhood–the Hudson Highlands–but I do not long for the bluffs of the Olentangy.
February 22, 2012 at 12:09 am
David Hugh-Jones
There’s an empirical literature on the characteristics of entrepreneurs which also relates to the van den Steen paper. The motivating question is, why does anyone start a business when 80% of them fail in five years? Low risk-aversion and optimism both play a part iirc.
March 4, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Capitalkid_1
I was born and raised in the Golden State, however I realized in 2006 that it may be impossible to continue in good fortune as the tides were turning in the world of economics.
I am in my mid 30′s and in my early 30″s I began to see the shift, and in order to see it it has to move pretty fast.
Car insurance, vehicle registration, rental fees, the cost of moving into or out of a unit, groceries, diesel(or gas) was climbing, Electric Bills,gas Bills, but wages were decreasing.
I went from 15 hours of OT a week in a full time plus job in 2000 to a 4 hour a day 3 days a week job by 2009.
The wages aren’t there, and even if you have a 10 something an hour job, the residential rental rates will EAT your pay and you will likely still owe.
I have a friend who lives in San Jose, she has a 2 bedroom 1 Ba apartment in public housing, and her rent(at the low end) is 1400.00 a month….In public housing!
My grandparents were transplants in the 1930′s, and at that time there may have been a good claim behind it being called the Land Of Milk and Honey.
We moved to a lessor populated state that has no sales tax. Within the first month, wages or no, we saved hundreds in taxes we would have paid in California.
We paid 86.00 to register our vehicle(we got our notice for our registration 1 month before we moved 590.00$ Plus smog-because now they smog Diesels)
We now belong to a rural Electric Co-op and pay 6 cents a KWH flat- no tax. We now literally pay for what we use Plus 20.00 basic charge. What a relief!!! Edison is Killer in rates and Tiers and they are not coming down anytime in the future.
We rented a summer cabin for the winter for 200.00 a month and have now managed to save over 7000.00 to put back in savings.(that would have been eaten by housing costs)
We have had enough money left over to have our truck serviced in several areas we could no longer afford to do in California.
groceries that used to cost our family well over 700 a month for the basics now cost under 300.00.
The biggest difference is we have the same amount of money to struggle with, only it goes alot farther now.
I miss our family, but unfortunately many folk that were born in California are now financially priced out.
I would consider this when contemplating a move there, because once the Honeymoon period is over, reality is once again upon us.
March 28, 2012 at 12:13 pm
D Rant
Ahaa! So that is why all non native Californians are such assholes!
April 22, 2012 at 1:48 am
Roger
“why does anyone start a business when 80% of them fail in five years?”
Keep in mind that “failure” does not entail “net loss.” Businesses can run for a few years, make the owner a profit, and then die.