So why are these the current “market probabilities” for American Idol?

  1. Lauren Alaina to be eliminated tonight: 50%
  2. Haley Reinhart to be eliminated tonight:  58%
  3. Scotty McReery to be eliminated tonight: 15%

The winning percentages also add up to more than 100.  Is it not possible to short them all?

Thanks to Zeke for the pointer.

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