I once tried setting my watch ahead a few minutes to help me make it to appointments on time. At first it worked, but not because I was fooled. I would glance at the watch, get worried that I was late, then remember that the watch is fast. But that brief flash acted as a sort of preview of how it feels to be late. And the feeling is a better motivator than the thought in the abstract.
But that didn’t last very long. The surprise wore off. I wonder if there are ways to maintain the surprise. For example, instead of setting the watch a fixed time ahead, I could set it to run too fast so that it gained an extra minute every week or month. Then if I have adaptive expectations I could consistently fool myself.
I think I might adjust to that eventually though. How about a randomizing watch? I don’t think you want a watch that just shows you a completely random time, but maybe one that randomly perturbs the time a little bit. Would a mean-preserving spread make sense? That way you have the right time on average but if you are risk-averse you will move a little faster.
You could try to exploit “rational inattention.” You could set the watch to show the true time 95% of the time and the remaining 5% of the time add 5 minutes. Your mind thinks that it’s so likely that the watch is correct that it doesn’t waste resources on trying to research the small probability event that it’s not. Then you get the full effect 5% of the time.
Maybe its simpler to just set all of your friends’ watches to run too slow.
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January 26, 2010 at 2:53 am
Vinnie
I find the most effective tactic is to occasionally unplug the clocks you look at around the house (alarm clock, microwave, etc.) when you’re vaguely aware of the time–say, +/-10 minutes–and reset them to the time you think it is plus 20 minutes. That’s always been pretty effective, at least with the alarm clock due to the grogginess factor. It always takes until the second snooze to remember that I’m not as late as I thought.
January 26, 2010 at 7:36 am
billpetti
This reminds me of a post I wrote a while back on the potential for a “novelty curve” with various nudge strategies. It was in relation to the Volkswagen-sponsored Fun Theory project. My basic notion was that people are initially intrigued and engaged by something new and fun. However, as time goes by what was once new and intriguing becomes old and stale. Like anything else, people adapt. It strikes me that nudge-like strategies could fall prey to behavioral adaptation (either conscious or unconscious). Like any strategy, once it’s deployed, counterparties will attempt to adapt to it. In this case, it would appear that individuals adapt to strategies implemented to fool themselves.
January 26, 2010 at 7:43 am
Joseph
There are already some clocks like this called the Probabilistic Clock (http://davidseah.com/blog/a-chindogu-clock-for-procrastinators/) and the Random Watch (http://www.emergenttechcorp.com/randomwatch-description.php). The clock is usually running fast, but how fast changes randomly. Also, the clock will sometimes run slow so that it is harder to mentally adjust to a fast clock.
January 26, 2010 at 8:03 am
Adaptation and Nudge Strategies « bill | petti
[…] 26, 2010 · Leave a Comment Jeff Ely over at the excellent Cheap Talk writes about his attempt to fool himself into being punctual: I once tried setting my watch ahead a few minutes to help me make it to appointments on time. At […]
January 26, 2010 at 8:20 am
david curran
I read a game theory paper on using this scheme in sports. As teams approach the end of a game they get cagey resulting in a less fun sports game. If instead the length of a game was random they could not afford to start acting in a very cagey way and games would be more entertaining.
The suggestion was for soccer to be 80 minutes + rand[20] known only to the ref to stop defenders kicking the ball to each other for the last minute of the game. I will try find the reference.
January 26, 2010 at 8:26 am
Anonymous
if you use less of your time writing blog posts about gaining an extra minute or two, you might save some time? 🙂
January 26, 2010 at 1:59 pm
jeff
disgruntled co-author?
January 26, 2010 at 9:04 am
Mom
Why not just get ready early to make sure you are on time!? It’s not that difficult.
January 26, 2010 at 1:59 pm
jeff
must be my upbringing
January 26, 2010 at 9:14 am
Andrew Berman
I say just set it to the correct time and train yourself to be on time. How can trying to outsmart yourself ever work in the long run?
January 26, 2010 at 9:23 am
liberty
Randomly a bit fast or a bit slow would work for me — I would have to assume that it was slow and so I would gain those few minutes; however 95% correct time and 5% ahead would not work for me because I would just think “well, maybe this is one of the times that its ahead,” and so I would actually end up being late more often, not less.
January 26, 2010 at 9:50 am
2010consultant
I think using a random perturbation would work best. Does the actual distribution make a difference provided you knew it in the first place? If you know it then you’d make the necessary adjustments to still match your risk profile on being late.
Ultimately you’re making a trade-off, the costs of being late v the costs of wasted time if you arrive early, with the liklihood of each being given a probability dependent on the variables constituting the travel time. If you can remove the costs of arriving early by filling the time, then you’d always arrive early. I had a few ideas on filling time under these scenarios in this post: http://2010consultant.wordpress.com/2010/01/22/filling-in-the-gaps/
By the way, I liked the article on challenging an overrule. You’re quite right, it’s not two independent pieces of information making it 1-1.
Keep up the good work!
January 26, 2010 at 9:54 am
supagold
I used to do the something similar before I switched to the iphone as my alarm. I got around the compensation problem by turn my head when I added minutes and just hitting the button randomly, then just walking away. I’d redo the process every few weeks.
January 26, 2010 at 10:36 am
Mike
I use this strategy but find that I adjust, as well. So, whenever I’m drunk \ spaced out (i.e., in a state in which I don’t think I’ll necessarily remember), I’ll set my clock a few minutes faster than it already is (being indiscriminate about exactly how many minutes fast I set it). I eventually adjust, and tend to reset it back 1 hour once I get an hour ahead. This way, I can’t really adapt, and I also can’t adapt to a constant change.
January 26, 2010 at 10:49 am
Ryan
I did this back when I was in high school. I would hand my watch to a friend and ask them to set it between 0 and 7 minutes fast, and would use all the self control I had not to look at it until I didn’t know what time it was. I usually assumed it was 0-2 minutes fast, and ended up on time everywhere until I noticed exactly how fast it actually was, when it would be time to have a friend reset it again.
It came back to bite me in college when I stopped wearing a watch and started using a cell phone for a clock that automatically set itself to the correct time. I was conditioned to arriving 2 minutes late for everything, so I’d waltz in to class on time enough to not miss anything but late enough to be awkward.
January 26, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Joel
The Procrastinator’s Clock may be what you’re looking for: http://download.cnet.com/Procrastinator-s-Clock/3000-2350_4-10631690.html?tag=contentMain;overviewHead
January 26, 2010 at 2:39 pm
James
The randomized watch won’t help much if you have any non-randomized clocks in your home.
January 26, 2010 at 3:35 pm
D. Watson
I pulled this on a roommate. He had an early morning class and would hit his snooze alarm 5 times before getting up late for class. He set his clock a bit faster one day and it worked to get him out the door a little earlier. He then confessed it wasn’t working anymore because he had adjusted. So without telling him, I set his clock ahead 45 minutes and adjusted his alarm time a bit also. He woke up in a panic the next day and fled without a single snooze to get to class. He came back later bemused but happy: he had been early to class for the first time. I confessed my misdeed and he thanked me.
Then we cut it out.
January 27, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Top Posts — WordPress.com
[…] Fooling Yourself I once tried setting my watch ahead a few minutes to help me make it to appointments on time. At first it worked, but […] […]
January 31, 2010 at 9:07 pm
twicker
For me, the only effective trigger has been to have an “alarm” system for appointments (in my case, Google Calendar texts me). That way, I get the adrenaline rush of imagining being late, but my clock/watch is still on time.
In related news, the clock in my car is ten minutes ahead – and pretty much *has* to be now, simply because I’m so used to it. The only real downside is that other people panic when they get in my car …
February 6, 2013 at 12:15 pm
Consider The Equilibrium « Cheap Talk
[…] everyone is going to equilibrate, just the regulars. But that’s exactly what you want. If you set the clock right then […]